GHS Macro & Consumer Strategist Richard Hastings, CCE monitors key trends in the macro economy in order to provide GHS clients with value-added insights. In addition to his work on markets, the economy, energy and natural resources, forex and labor trends, he is known for his analysis of consumer trends, retailers, credit, housing and construction, new media and marketing.

Four principles guide his approach:

• A distrust of generalizations, guiding us to a more granular level of detail that allows differentiation and analysis of exceptions to trends. In other words, the trend is interesting, but variances from the trend are of greater importance for risk management.
• A focus on contradictions. Conflicting information often portends important discoveries. They are the hallmark of the differentiation of opportunity.
• Discovery of inter-market inflection points, which provide baseline knowledge of the strength, depth and duration of any major trend.
• Change the focal point to discover rewards in other markets and securities.

Why such varied material?

• We must know the impact of inflation on consumers. In order to understand this, we must know how trade, monetary policy and forex influence the dollar and interest rates.
• Global supply chain synchronization reduces volatility and stabilizes EBITDA and sales. New catalysts often have a diminished effect on earnings when compared to prior years.
• In order to understand motor gasoline prices it helps to know how refiners produce motor gasoline, and why they increase and reduce production under changing conditions.
• Each brand and each retailer defines a strong relationship with an identifiable shopper. If we can define these relationships, then we know how things react to changing conditions.
• Everything is contextual and dynamic. By the time we think we know it, it’s already changing. The only thing that does not change are the causal relationships in the system. When something changes, it sets off changes in other parts of the system.

Examples of recent reports and slide shows covering a wide variety of subjects are available upon request.

Guest speaker and workshop leader.
Mr. Hastings is a frequent guest speaker at conferences and events internationally.
Please click here to request a speaking appearance.

To obtain a copy of Mr. Hastings’ most recent Economic Commentary, please contact your GHS representative.