GHS Economic Commentary
Authored by:
Richard D. Hastings, CCE
Consumer Strategist
Global Hunter Securities, LLC
Download Bio: Hastings GHS Profile
Disclaimer: This material has been prepared by Global Hunter Securities, LLC ("Global Hunter") a registered broker-dealer, employing appropriate expertise, and in the belief that it is fair and not misleading. Information, opinions or recommendations contained in the reports and updates are submitted solely for advisory and information purposes. The information upon which this material is based was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified. Therefore except for any obligations under law, we do not guarantee its accuracy. Additional and supporting information is available upon request. This is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or investment. Any opinion or estimates constitute our best judgment as of this date, and is subject to change without notice. Global Hunter and our affiliates and their respective directors, officers and employees may buy or sell securities mentioned herein as agent or principal for their own account. Not all products and services are available outside of the US or in all US states.
Shortcut to GHS Economic Commentary Notes
| PRESENTATIONS | |
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Upcoming |
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| 12/5/08 |
Federation of Credit Best Practices in Receivables and Risk Management Symposium in East Rutherford, NJ |
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2/18/09-2/20/09 |
RetailConnections' Business Executive Summit in Aventura, FL. |
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5/13/09-5/15/09 |
Gift Associates Interchange Network (GAIN) Conference, Keynote Speaker, Phoenix, AZ |
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Previous |
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| 11/18/08 |
Federation of Credit Annual Media Credit Conference in New York, NY: State of the Economy for Broadcast, Media and Advertising" |
| 11/12/08 |
Federation of Credit Webinar: Holiday Retail Sales Forecast |
| 11/11/08 |
Federation of Credit Consumer Goods Credit Group Meeting in Newark, NJ. Keynote Speaker. Topic: Office Supercenter Latest Trends. |
| 11/10/08 |
National Window & Floorcovering Credit Group in New York., NY. Keynote Speaker. GHS Slideshow: Link |
| 11/6/08 |
Apparel Magazine 2008 Tech Conference in New York., NY. Keynote Speaker. GHS Slideshow: Link |
| 11/4/08 |
Deflation and Hyperinflation: Which Way are They Leaning? GHS hosted conference call. GHS Slideshow: Link |
| 10/22/08 |
The National Building Materials Credit Group: Consumer Goods Credit Group, Newark, NJ Topic: "Bottoming Symptoms and a Review of the Bailout" GHS Slideshow: Link |
| 10/15/08 | Federation of Credit- Solar Panel Credit Group, San Diego CA (Subject: Solar Energy: Economic Context, 2008-2009 - Tax Credit and State Budgets) GHS Slideshow: Link |
| 10/14/08 |
Federation of Credit- Consumer Goods Credit Group, Newark, NJ (Subject TBD) GHS Slideshow: Link |
| 9/18/08 | Hospitality Technology's Restaurant Executive Summit 2008 in Westlake Village, CA. Opening Keynote: GHS Slideshow: Link |
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9/3/08 |
Southern California Investor Conference in Newport Beach, CA.. GHS slideshow: Link |
| 8/20/08 | Federation of Credit Webinar: National Building Trends. GHS slideshow: Link |
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8/13/08 |
Federation of Credit Webinar: Bankruptcy Cycle and Forecast. GHS slideshow: Link |
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8/12/08 |
Consumer Goods Credit Group in Newark, NJ. |
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8/7/08 |
"Hunting the Consumer" - GHS hosted conference call to introduce Richard Hastings to clients and partners. |
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7/23/08 |
Federation of Credit Webinar: Slowdown: Why Delinquencies in Banking Impact Trade Credit Risk. GHS slideshow: Link |
| MEDIA INTERVIEWS | |
| 11/18/087 | FortuneMagazine.com: Whatever You Do, Don't Buy Sears: "Meanwhile, Richard Hastings, a consumer strategist at the investment bank Global Hunter Securities, says he's concerned that Sears' sales of big-ticket items were impacted in the third quarter "greater than is generally understood." |
| 11/17/087 | Reuters: Buy Now, Pay Later Losing appeal for US Consumers: "The consumer has completely lost confidence in the future," said Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities LLC. "They don't want to make long-term financial commitments." |
| 11/14/08 | San Francisco Chronicle: Retail Sales: Biggest Monthly Drop Since 1992: "Things are so bad right now that we won't know how good it was until March, when things will be much worse," said Richard Hastings, consumer strategist with Global Hunter Securities, an investment bank based in Newport Beach. Hastings said job losses, which have already started, will accelerate in the first part of next year and affect all sectors of the economy. |
| 11/14/08 | CBS Marketwatch Radio Squawk Box: Audio interview with GHS' Consumer Strategist regarding the ailing economy. |
| 11/1408 | CBSMarketwatch.com: US Stocks Tally Another Week of Losses on Ailing Economy: "The biggest hit starts with everything that's big," said Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities. "People have been cutting back first on the biggest ticket, which was houses. Then it spread to automobiles in a very nasty way, and is now spreading into consumer electronics [and] appliances." |
| 11/14/08 | Forbes.com/Associated Press: Wal-Mart's Profit Rises Amid Dreary Retail Picture: "Wal-Mart is regaining market share across the board," said Richard D. Hastings, a consumer strategist with Global Hunter Securities. |
| 11/14/08 | The Washington Post: US Consumers Cut Back in October: Richard D. Hastings, consumer strategist for investment bank Global Hunter Securities, sees an even more dire scenario: sales dropping by 6 to 8 percent. |
| 11/14/08 | Northwest Arkansas Online: Wal-Mart Net Up 10%; Trims Forecast: And in addition to domestic woes in the housing and credit markets, particularly deep calendar shifts over the holiday shopping season is expected to also adversely affect holiday spending, said Richard Hastings, an economist and consumer strategist with Global Hunter Securities in Newport Beach, Calif. |
| 11/13/08 | CNBC: Why You Should Worry About Holiday Sales: Most of the rules retailers have followed in past holidays are being "ignored or revised," said Global Hunter Securities Consumer Strategist Richard Hastings, in his grim holiday consumer forecast. Hastings is calling for retail sales to contract between 6 percent and 8 percent year-over-year due to a confluence of forces, sending shockwaves throughout the global economy. |
| 11/13/08 | CNBC: Squawk Box: GHS' Richard Hastings comments on recent earnings reports from retail companies. during a live national interview. |
| 11/13/08 | New York Post: Best Buy Blues: “Revenues will be hit partly by lower demand for big-ticket electronics and appliances, which typically rely on financing to attract shoppers, said Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities. With credit for consumers drying up, Best Buy will likely resort to lowering prices, which will hit profits, too. |
| 11/13/08 | Associated Press: Halt in Consumer Spending Hurts Retailers: “Typically consumer electronics would be a positive note during a weaker holiday season and instead consumer electronics will be one of the weaker spots this holiday season and continuing along a much weaker trend next year," Hastings said. |
| 11/12/08 | E-Commerce Times: Best Buy Paints Glum Picture for '09:“"It's the nature of the beast," Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities, told the E-Commerce Times. "It usually resolves itself after nine months, but we'll see significant weakness on price for the next six months." |
| 11/12/08 | Reuters: Best Buy Slashes Profit Outlook: “Typically consumer electronics would be a positive note during a weaker holiday season and instead consumer electronics will be one of the weaker spots this holiday season and continuing along a much weaker trend next year," Hastings said. |
| 11/12/08 | Bloomberg: Lampert Buyback, Sales Drop Drain Sears Cash in Holiday Crunch: ``We're definitely arriving at a point when some people will make the argument that the steps not taken before are logically leading to the operating losses that are building up now,'' said Richard Hastings, a consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities LLC of Newport Beach, California. |
| 11/6/08 | Bloomberg: Macy's, Target Monthly Sales Fall, Wal-Mart Gains “A slowdown in consumer spending that started in mid- September with Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s bankruptcy became even more pronounced in early October with the stock market plunge," said Richard Hastings, a consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities LLC. |
| 11/5/08 | CNBC: Confidence of the Consumer: GHS Consumer Strategist Richard D. Hastings in a live interview on national television regarding eroding consumer confidence. |
| 10/28/08 | Women's Wear Daily: Consumer Confidence Hits All Time Low: “The layoff cycle will begin in earnest in January after firms assess their balance sheets and margin trends,” said Richard D. Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities. He said the consumer confidence reflects “capitulation, not by equities, but by consumers, and this ironically means the bottom, for equities, is not firming up anytime soon.” |
| 10/25/08 | Star Ledger: Ho Ho Hum: Retail Sales Look Grim This Holiday Season: "It's an extraordinary contraction in wealth," said Richard Hastings, consumer strategist with Global Hunter Securities in California. "You take those two (higher energy, lower home values), put them together and it's a stunning, unsurpassable problem." |
| 10/17/08 | Reuters: A Modest Proposal Regarding Same-Store Sales Reports: Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities, has this take on monthly sales reports. |
| 10/16/08 | The Associated Press: Holiday Shopping Notebook: Interest-free financing: Richard D. Hastings, a consumer strategist with Global Hunter Securities, says that in the past these no-interest offers had traditionally run for only a year. |
| 10/15/08 | CNBC.com: As Recession Looms, Fed Faces Pressure to Cut More: “The sad reality is that it will take quite a long period for the consumer sector to recharge and that will in turn maintain pressure on financials, says Hastings. "The ripple effects are already being felt in technology sector and will soon effect industrials." |
| 10/14/08 | USA Today: Fearing a Holiday Letdown, retailers shifting strategies: "Things will appear to be similar," says Richard Hastings, a consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities. "Yet underlying those appearances will be a lot of caution regarding inventory, promotions, displays and advertising. Retailers know the consumer is not reliable right now." |
| 10/07/08 | The New York Post: Deluxe to Discount, Retailer Suffer: September results "were simply an intensification of the existing trend: a focus on value and price, and hesitation on discretionary items, especially fashion," said Richard Hastings of Global Hunter Securities. |
| 10/07/08 |
The Miami Herald: South Florida Bankruptcy Filings Soar: Richard Hastings, a consumer strategist for investment banking firm Global Hunter Securities in Newport Beach, Calif., who tracks bankruptcy filings, said the faster rise in bankruptcies in South Florida compared with the rest of the country also has a lot to do with the area's economy. |
| 9/24/08 |
CNBC.com: Regional Economy in Real Trouble, Too: Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities, says the consumer is spent. “The financial sector has leveraged up the household sector to the point where the consumer is totally dysfunctional and unable to funnel cash back to the financial sector.” . |
| 9/22/08 | Fox Business News: Interview with Neil Cavuto. Topic: Holiday retail price cuts and consumer spending. |
| 9/22/08 | Women's Wear Daily: Fiscal Woes Darken Holiday Outlook "Generally speaking, the reaction in the financial markets is amplifying an underlying fear among consumers,” said Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities LLC. “I would expect that despite some relief in the immediate term in the financial markets, the damage to consumer confidence will probably start to show up in various things including readings of consumer sentiment and their buying intentions over the next four to six weeks..." |
| 9/16/08 | Women's Wear Daily: Financial Crisis Could be Fashion Hazard "Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities, said some things recently had gotten better for the consumer, such as the decline in the price of fuel, leading to an improvement in consumer confidence..." |
| 9/12/2008 | Bloomberg Television: August Retail Sales & Consumer Spending Outlook "There is a lot of evidence that shows over many years that consumer response to gasoline prices has been very elastic... Now, the question is, is the funding - wages, capital credit - strong enough to support those spending intentions over the next two, three or four quarters..." |
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8/12/08 |
Footwear News: Analysts See Long Road to Recovery "...Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities, thinks rate cuts could begin in October, noting that the ongoing credit crisis requires more cuts. He predicts a quarter-point cut, but feels that it could be a half-point cut if from now to October there is a greater weakening in consumer spending..." |
| 8/4/08 | Reuters: Suppliers left holding goods as retail swoons "...But increasingly, retailers are not taking the goods at all, Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities said..." |
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7/29/08 |
Fox Business News: Interview with Stuart Varney. Topic: Consumers' early holiday shopping and the impact on retail. |
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7/28/08 |
Associated Press: Linens 'n Things to close fewer stores "...Richard D. Hastings, a consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities LLC, said that in general, it is common for retailers to end up with a different number of store closings compared with original estimates..." |
| 7/3/08 | Financial Times: Starbucks goes skinny as froth withers "...Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities, noted that the current inflationary environment, combined with slowing demand, was making capital expenditure reductions increasingly attractive to retailers. Cutting store costs and expenditure on new stores were "the most logical next steps in this story once you saw demand begin to decline in the summer of 2007"..." |